A new Iowa poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points, driven by strong support from women and independent voters. Discover how this surprising lead in Iowa could impact the 2024 election and why key voter groups are playing a critical role in the race.
In an unexpected turn of events, Kamala Harris has surpassed Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a recent Des Moines Register poll, with 47% to Trump’s 44%. Despite being small, this three-point advantage is noteworthy in a state that Trump previously won by almost 10 points in both 2016 and 2020. The poll’s findings reveal an intriguing change in the demographics of voters, especially among independents and women, who are increasingly inclined to support Harris. Trump promptly rejected the poll as “false” and “skewed,” which is not surprising.
Independent women and senior women, who have historically been important to both parties, are the main forces behind Harris’ support. Independent women back her 57% to 29%, but senior women favour her by a startling 63% to 28% majority. This change indicates that voters who care about social problems are responding favourably to Harris’ message of defending liberties, constitutional principles, and women’s rights. In contrast, Trump continues to have solid support from his core constituency, which consists of evangelical voters, men, and rural Iowans. His campaign has centred on pledges to combat illegal immigration and revive the economy, two themes that are important to his followers.
Because Iowa was not previously viewed as a fight state this year, neither candidate has spent much time there; instead, they have concentrated on swing states like Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. However, Harris’ advantage, even though it is small, raises the possibility that Iowa is more involved than first thought. The stakes are enormous as both campaigns contemplate where to double down in the closing stages, with more than 75 million votes already cast countrywide.
This Iowa survey is important for two reasons: it shows that the voting base is changing and highlights the influence of important voter segments such as older women and independent voters. Although Harris will not win in Iowa, the outcome suggests a larger pattern that could affect the national contest. This election has been unexpected, and the outcome may depend on how successfully each candidate connects with these important, values-based voter groups across the nation as they make their last-ditch efforts.
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