Seti: why extraterrestrial intelligence is more likely to be artificial than biological

Is there intelligent life elsewhere in the universe? It\’s a question that has been debated for centuries, if not millennia. But only recently have we had a real chance to find out, with initiatives like Seti (Search for E̳x̳t̳r̳a̳t̳e̳r̳r̳e̳s̳t̳r̳i̳a̳l̳ Intelligence) using radio telescopes to actively listen to radio messages from ex̳t̳r̳a̳t̳e̳r̳r̳e̳s̳t̳r̳i̳a̳l̳ c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s.

What should we expect to detect if these searches are successful? My suspicion is that they are highly unlikely to be little green men, something I speculated about in a talk at a Breakthrough Listen (a Seti project) conference.

Suppose there are other planets where life began and that something like a Darwinian evolution followed (which need not be the case). Even then, it is highly unlikely that the progression of intelligence and technology will occur at exactly the same rate as on Earth. If it was significantly delayed, then that planet would clearly not reveal evidence of ex̳t̳r̳a̳t̳e̳r̳r̳e̳s̳t̳r̳i̳a̳l̳ life to our radio telescopes. But around a star older than the Sun, life might have had a head start of a billion years or more.

Human technological c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳ only goes back millennia (at most), and it may be only another century or two before humans, made up of organic materials like carbon, are overtaken or surpassed by inorganic intelligence, like AI. Computer processing power is already increasing exponentially, which means that AI in the future can use much more data than today. It seems to follow that it could become exponentially more intelligent, surpassing general human intelligence.

Perhaps a starting point would be to improve ourselves with genetic modification in combination with technology, creating cyborgs with part organic and part inorganic parts. This could be a transition to fully artificial intelligences.

AI may even be capable of evolving, creating better and better versions of itself on a time scale faster than Darwin\’s over billions of years. Human-level organic intelligence would then be just a brief interlude in our “human story” before machines take over. So if a̳l̳i̳e̳n̳ intelligence had evolved in a similar way, it would be very unlikely that we would “catch” it in the short time when it was still incarnated in biological form. If we were to detect ex̳t̳r̳a̳t̳e̳r̳r̳e̳s̳t̳r̳i̳a̳l̳ life, it would be far more likely to be electronic than flesh and blood, and it may not even reside on planets.

Therefore, we must reinterpret the Drake equation that was established in 1960 to estimate the number of c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s in the Milky Way that we could potentially communicate with. The equation includes various assumptions, such as how many planets there are, but also how long a c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳ can beam signals into space, which is estimated to be between 1,000 and 100 million years.

But the life of an organic c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳ may be millennia at most, while its electronic diaspora could continue for billions of years. If we include this in the equation, it seems that there may be more c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s than we thought, but that most of them would be artificial.

We may even want to rethink the term “a̳l̳i̳e̳n̳ c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s.” A “c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳” connotes a society of individuals. In contrast, the a̳l̳i̳e̳n̳s could be a single integrated intelligence.

message decoding

If Seti were successful, it would be unlikely that he would r̟e̟c̟o̟r̟d̟ decipherable messages. Instead, she can detect a byproduct (or even a malfunction) of some super-complex machine far beyond our comprehension.

Seti focuses on the radio part of the electromagnetic spectrum. But since we have no idea what is out there, we should clearly explore all wave bands, including optical and X-ray parts. unnatural activities. These include artificial structures built around stars to absorb their energy (Dyson spheres) or artificially created molecules, such as chlorofluorocarbons (non-toxic and non-flammable chemicals containing carbon, chlorine and fluorine) in the atmospheres of planets. These chemicals are greenhouse gases that cannot be created by natural processes, which means they could be a sign of “terraforming” (changing a planet to make it more habitable) or industrial pollution.

I\’d say it might even be worth looking for traces of a̳l̳i̳e̳n̳s in our own solar system. While we can probably rule out visits from human-like species, there are other possibilities. An a̳l̳i̳e̳n̳ c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳ that had mastered nanotechnology could have transferred its intelligence to tiny machines, for example. Then it could invade other worlds, or even asteroid belts, with sw̳a̳r̳ms of microscopic probes.

And even if we did receive a decodable radio message, how would we know what the superintelligent sender intended? We have absolutely no idea: think of the variety of strange motives (ideological, financial, and religious) that have driven human endeavors in the past. They can be peaceful and curious. Even less obtrusively, they may realize that it\’s easier to think at low temperatures, moving away from any star or even hibernating for billions of years until it cools down. But they could be expansionist, and this seems to be the expectation of most who have thought about the future trajectory of c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s.

the future of intelligence

As the universe evolves, intelligent species can become incredibly intelligent. It only takes our own future. Eventually, stellar births and de̳a̳t̳h̳s in our galaxy will gradually proceed more slowly, until it shakes out when the Milky Way collides with the Andromeda galaxy in about a billion years. The remnants of our galaxy, Andromeda, and its smaller companions within our local group of galaxies will thereafter coalesce into an amorphous galaxy, while the distant ones will move away from us and eventually disappear.

But our remnant will continue for much longer, long enough, perhaps, for a c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳ to emerge that could be in possession of enormous amounts of energy, even harnessing the entire mass of a galaxy.

This may be the culmination of the long-term trend for living systems to become more complex. At this stage, all the atoms that were once in the stars and gas could transform into a giant, galactic-scale organism. Some science fiction authors contemplate stellar-scale engineering to create black holes and wormholes, bridges that connect different points in space-time, in theory providing shortcuts for space travelers. These concepts go far beyond any technological capabilities we can imagine, but not in violation of basic physical laws.

Are we artificial?

Posthuman intelligences can also build computers with enormous processing power. H̳u̳m̳a̳n̳s̳ are already capable of modeling some fairly complex phenomena, such as weather. However, more intelligent c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s can simulate living beings, with real consciousness, or even entire worlds or universes.

How do we know we are not living in such a simulation created by technologically superior a̳l̳i̳e̳n̳s? Perhaps we are nothing more than a bit of entertainment for some supreme being who is executing such a model? In fact, if life is destined to be able to create technologically advanced c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s that can make computer programs, there may be more simulated universes than real ones, so it is conceivable that we are in one of them.

This conjecture may sound outlandish, but it is based on our current understanding of physics and cosmology. However, surely we should keep an open mind about the possibility that there is much we do not understand. Perhaps the laws we see and the constants we measure are only “local” and differ in other parts of the universe? That would lead to even more amazing possibilities.

Ultimately, physical reality could encompass complexities that neither our intellect nor our senses can grasp. Some electronic “brains” may simply have a quite different perception of reality. We also cannot predict or understand their motives. This is why we cannot assess whether the current radio silence the Seti are experiencing means the absence of advanced a̳l̳i̳e̳n̳ c̳i̳v̳i̳l̳i̳z̳a̳t̳i̳o̳n̳s, or simply their preference.